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The Sun to Help: Ukrainians Are Getting Prepared For a Cold Winter

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The Sun to Help: Ukrainians Are Getting Prepared For a Cold Winter

Ready your sledge in the summer, a proverb says. The 2022-23 winter is expected to be one of the most challenging for Ukrainians “Due to Russian aggression, we expect the most challenging winter since the Independence”, the President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed in his speech.

We face day-to-day damage of the energy infrastructure, seizure of power plants, mines, oil refineries, as well as looting. More than 175 energy hubs such as power plants, electricity substations, gas pipelines, have been damaged or destroyed. The Russians shelled and then seized the nuclear power plant in Enerhodar, the most powerful nuclear power plant in Europe, one of the 4 nuclear power plants in Ukraine. Their troops as well entered the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant and the Luhansk thermal power station. The last stopped working after shelling. Those military actions are causing systematic disruptions of energy supply to some locations at Zaporizhzhya, Kherson and other regions.

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky announced the Board to prepare for the heating season. He ensured that all domestic gas and coal production to be aimed at the country’s domestic needs.

The minimum gas supply estimated for smooth heating season of 2022-23 in Ukraine is 19 billion cubic meters. The available gas stock Ukraine-wide is only 60% of that, supposedly to be replenished by 9 billion cubic meters by October 1. Kharkov, Poltava, and Sumy, the leading Ukrainian natural gas producers, are being shelled systematically by Russian troops, causing disruption and damage of the pipelines. The aggressor’s violence threatens the gas production industry and, consequently, challenging the replenishment of the gas storage. Estimated average consumption of natural gas in Ukraine is 25-27 billion cubic meters. Yet, it is likely to decrease since many industrial enterprises have collapsed due to the war.

Estimating a coal, vital for powering the TES, its mining has decreased by 30% since the invasion of the Russian Federation. Several mines have collapsed due to waterlogging, while coal logistic is disrupted as well due to constant shelling of railway lines. In the ballpark, 2-3 million tons of coal is a minimum to generate steadily the thermal power plant.

The gross potential of the Ukrainian power industry is so far the only reliable source of energy to meet domestic demand and support import as well.

“Ukraine aims to increase the energy imports which has solid potential due to the available capacities in Ukraine. Since Ukraine has joined the EU power grid, the energy import becomes more profitable, while minimizing energy disruption in the neighbouring countries rejecting Russian energy supplies”, Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Will Ukraine electricity suffice for coming winter? This will depend on the Ukrainian energy production, which might meet domestic demand, and even accelerate export if there is no major damages from war, suffice coal mining, and available nuclear power blocks operating. The winter temperature also matters. It is important that after all settings are made, Ukraine will get technical support from the European Union and import power, if needed.

Russian missiles are shelling Ukraine, killing people daily and disrupting the country’s economy, which threatens not only the heating season, but also the industry, agriculture, and product exports. Unfortunately, Europe dependent on Russian gas and oil is more than adherent to European values. During the first two and a half months of the war, European countries have spent on Russian energy the amount equal to Russia’s annual military procurement, which is $65.9 billion. To compare, the cost of equipment lost by the Russians in the war is about $15 billion. More than 1,300 missiles fired by Russia at Ukraine are estimated at about $7.5 billion. Thus, by tying the world’s hands with its hydrocarbons, Russia continues destroying Ukraine with impunity.

Aware of the threat, the Ukrainians have begun to use alternative energy sources. Solar panels are widely popular for installation on the roofs of houses, enterprises, government buildings. Solar power plants use photovoltaic technology to generate electricity from solar energy. In general, this source of energy is perspective for Ukraine, since there are many sunny days in the region throughout the year. The high cost of equipment is the main issue as it is imported.

Preparing for the winter, Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the government and local authorities to keep the actual tariffs for gas, electricity, heat and hot water at existing level during the coming heating season.

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